Tuesday, February 08, 2005
Dr. Irwin Kellner: Social Security Will Never Go Broke -- Unless Bush Gets His Mitts On It
First Kevin Drum, now Dr. Kellner:
Here is the bottom line right up front: the Social Security system will remain solvent far longer than is generally expected, so there is no need to tinker with it.Dr. Kellner uses arguments similar to Kevin Drum's but also adds this:
The actuaries assume that the U.S. economy will grow by an annual rate of 1.9 percent per year over the next 75 years. This is far below the 3.6 percent average of the past 75 years -- a period that includes the Great Depression. The system's actuaries have a somewhat more optimistic projection. It assumes, among other things, a slightly faster rate of growth of 2.7 percent per year over the same period. While this, too, is below the economy's 75-year average, it shows that the system never runs out of money. That's right, never. So before they start fixing the Social Security system, policymakers should first understand that it's not broken to begin with.More and more economists are stepping forth to say: There Is No Crisis.
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