Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Japan a Nuclear Power and China the Top Economy
Not this moment.
But according to Chalmers Johnson,
"The military analyst Richard Tanter notes that Japan already has 'the undoubted capacity to satisfy all three core requirements for a usable nuclear weapon: a military nuclear device, a sufficiently accurate targeting system, and at least one adequate delivery system.' Japan's combination of fully functioning fission and breeder reactors plus nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities gives it the ability to build advanced thermonuclear weapons; its H-II and H-IIA rockets, in-flight refueling capacity for fighter bombers, and military-grade surveillance satellites assure that it could deliver its weapons accurately to regional targets. What it currently lacks are the platforms (such as submarines) for a secure retaliatory force in order to dissuade a nuclear adversary from launching a pre-emptive first-strike."
And
"According to CIA statisticians in their Factbook 2003, China is actually already the second-largest economy on Earth measured on a purchasing power parity basis -- that is, in terms of what China actually produces rather than prices and exchange rates. The CIA calculates the United States' gross domestic product (GDP) -- the total value of all goods and services produced within a country -- for 2003 as $10.4 trillion and China's $5.7 trillion."
For now, the US is successfully playing off the Japanese against the Chinese. They have a historical rivalry dating back many centuries, so it's not too hard to play divide and conquer. In addition, the US is hoping to divert large sums of Japanese income into Star Wars.
I am not one of those who believes that China will become the world's next superpower. It has too many internal fissures and accumulated social and economic problems. I see it as much more dangerous: the US is in decline and no nation or bloc is ready to pick up the standard of leadership.
More blogs about politics.
