Saturday, October 08, 2005
China: A good investment bet?
If the Chinese think they can continue to modernize their country the way everybody else did, with cheap energy, they are woefully wrong.
I think this problem will become more apparent over the next 10 years or so, and it's possible China might not be able to survive their move to an oil-energy-based economy. Their remarkable economic expansion will not go on for much longer, and now is the wrong time to "get in."
Anyways, that's what I say to myself when I look enviously at the return rates for the Matthews China Fund, which sadly I do not own.
But when I though of gold, I thought of Bulyanhulu and the wildcat miners buried alive there.
When I thought of oil, I thought of the Exxon Valdez.
When I thought of defense stocks, I thought of the children and their parents maimed and killed.
And when I thought of China, I thought of slave labor, pollution, and so on. Looking at Matthews's holdings, they look pretty decent. A lot of realty stuff, but without the speculative risk.
But there are still many excellent and reasonably socially-conscious investments out there. I don't want to make any specific recommendations, but look at EWZ (+100% since Bush) and BISIX (+50% since Bush) as examples. Not as great as if you bought Matthews in 2000, but good.
For the future, who knows? Chapstick for us to kiss our rear ends goodbye could be as good a bet as new technology to solve the problems Bushco has created.
More blogs about politics.