Peter Galbraith, a former US envoy who attended the talks [said to the NY Review of Books] "Underneath an Islamic veneer, Iraq's new constitution ratifies the division of Iraq into three disparate entities: Kurdistan in the north, an Iranian-influenced Islamic state in the south, and in the centre, a Sunni region that has no clear political identity."
Or, maybe no:
But even if the referendum being held tomorrow approves the proposed constitution, this clause will do nothing to prevent Iraq having one of the weakest central governments in modern history, and possibly splitting up as a nation. Many had feared that would be the outcome of the Anglo-American war and occupation. Others had actually planned for such an outcome.
I tend to think it might work. Here are the basic parameters:
* Iran and Turkey will not accept a breakaway Free Kurdistan
* The Sunnis will not accept being denied the oil revenue from the Kurdish and Sh'ia regions
* The Sh'ia and Kurds will not accept the Sunnis being able to dominate the politics
* The US cannot accept the oil producing regions falling under Iranian or Al Qaida control
* A large majority can live with Islamic law, as long as it isn't as extreme as practiced by the Taliban.
* However, the most-educated, so vital to recovery, are the least likely to approve of religious law
Confederacy sounds like the right way to go. Our nation started out that way and only after we realized we needed one another did we federalize.