Sunday, February 26, 2006
The war on Iran: Who among them can raise the dead?
Edward Luttwak is not a bad guy. But he is definitely nuts in thinking that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could work out.
Many commentators argue that a preemptive air attack against Iran's nuclear installations is unfeasible. It would not be swift or surgical, they say, because it would require thousands of strike and defense-suppression sorties. And it is likely to fail even then because some facilities might be too well hidden or too strongly protected. There may well be other, perfectly valid reasons to oppose an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. But let's not pretend that such an attack has no chance of success. In fact, the odds are rather good....The bombing of Iran's nuclear installations may still be a bad idea for other reasons, but not because it would require a huge air offensive. On the contrary, it could all be done in a single night.
Assuming one defines success as massive contamination of civilian areas with nuclear material and a few thousand immediate deaths, followed by an uprising throughout the Arab and Muslim world, I guess it's a cakewalk.
Of course, the Middle East being the Middle East, Luttwak is not alone in his insanity.
If the United States launches an attack on Iran, the Islamic republic will retaliate with a military strike on Israel's main nuclear facility, an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard said. The advisor, Dr. Abasi, said Tehran would respond to an American attack with strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor and other strategic Israeli sites such as the port city of Haifa and the Zakhariya area. Haifa is also home to a large concentration of chemical factories and oil refineries. Zakhariya, located in the Jerusalem hills is - according to foreign reports - home to Israel's Jericho missile base.
I actually suspect they are both spreading manure. The US probably hopes to damage Iran's nuclear program by covert action, while Iran more likely would retaliate against Gulf shipping. These are politically lower-cost profile than the arrogant frontal attacks each side is bragging it can do. But low-profile or high-profile, I see no outcome that would not lead to wider conflict and ultimately a US/Israeli defeat... and Iran reduced to helplessness.
All of these people who see life as something cheap, these people who boast "Bring 'em on!", thinking-- so godlessly-- that they can kill without consequence... who among them can raise the dead?
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Only Son of George could raise the undead: Negroponte, Poindexter, Abrams, Downing, Clarridge...
Even Armitage couldn't stand the smell.
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Even Armitage couldn't stand the smell.
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