Saturday, July 22, 2006


PAN'S calculus

Thanks to El Machete, I learened the specific allegations of fraud are coming online here or here. These show the district by district results, and one can then look at individual precincts by selecting a district. They have uploaded some images of precinct tallies, and many more are to come. So, for example, look at Aguascalientes, district 1, precinct 339B by clicking on the Analisis detallado tab. They got 640 ballots and had 345 left over. There were no null votes. One expects 295 votes. But only 283 voters were recorded. So there are 12 phantom ballots. Of the ballots, PAN got 165. The remaining categories (APM PBT NA ASDC and unregistered candidated) aren't defined clearly, but they are the other parties Alianza por Mexico (APM in Spanish), Coalicion por el Bien de Todos (PBT in Spanish), Partido Alternativa Socialdemocrata y Campesina (PASC in Spanish), Nueva Alianza (NA in Spanish), Proceso Electoral Federal (PEF in Spanish) These votes add up to 118: Total votes - PAN's votes. Then there are precincts where, like the loaves and the fishes, there are more completed ballots plus unused ballots than there are registered voters. Aguascalientes 362 C01, with 628 registered voters, got 940 ballots, reported that 303 were cast and 637 were not used. Mexican law clearly provides for a recount of precincts where the numbers don't add up. And AMLO has already listed something like 70,000 such precincts. Would you believe the election was clean if there were that many arithmetic errors?
Unbelieveably dangerous, Charles. The country hangs by a thread.
Yeah, I think Calderon thinks if they keep denying everything, things will settle down. I am pretty sure he is wrong. With 1 million adults really stirred up, well-informed, and highly resistant to media manipulation, you have a country on the brink of insurrection.

The right way through this is to count the votes. I don't know if Obrador would win, though I strongly suspect so. The worst possible outcome would be if the PRD is bludgeoned into silence. As John Kennedy said, "Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable."
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