Sunday, August 27, 2006
8 AM Central: Judgment Day for Mexico
From Reuters
Sunday, August 27, 2006; 12:50 PMMEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's electoral court will hold a public session Monday to give its verdict on a partial recount of votes in the July 2 presidential election...It was not clear whether the court also would give the revised vote count for the overall election... The electoral court is widely expected to reject Lopez Obrador's demand for a full recount and most analysts expect it eventually will confirm pro-business former energy minister Calderon as president-elect. Lopez Obrador, a former Indian-rights activist who wants to overhaul Mexico's political and economic systems to favor the poor, has vowed to prevent Calderon taking office on Dec. 1. He says that if Calderon is named president without a full recount, he will continue protests.Here are the possibilities and my handicapping. Court... 1. declares massive fraud and awards election to Lopez Obrador. Probability: hahaha! 2. declares no fraud and installs Calderon without further comment. Probability: 20% 3. makes lengthy, grave, but ultimately meaningless pronunciations about the election, then installs Calderon with a sound "TskTsk!" Probability: 80%. Here are the probabilities of Mexico not suffering extended civil disorder: hahaha! The reason I predict civil disorder isn't actually the election. Polls I have seen and anecdotal evidence suggests to me that (as it was in the US in 2000) only about 10% of the population is really upset about the election. Probably another 40 or 50% have reservations, but they figure that politics doesn't matter very much. This lasts until things go wrong. Then you have 50 or 60% of the population who thinks that the guy installed in office doesn't belong there. If things get bad enough that they start thinking that politics matters, you have the potential for instant instability. In the US, the transition has happened slowly and the concrete hasn't dried. But if there's a deep recession, that sentiment will crystallize over a short time period. Odds of a recession in the US are high. Odds that it will be deep are significant, maybe 30%. Odds that even a mild recession in the US will have catastrophic effects in Mexico: very high. Odds that Calderon has the skills to deal with a severe recession: You'd have to pay me to take that bet. So, when Mexico realizes it has the wrong guy in office, it will be too late. Anger will be boiling over and even harsh repression will not be able to stop it. I hope I am wrong. I hope the Court eases the country into seeing that Calderon didn't win the election. But the word I hear is that the decision is wired.
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My hopeful idealist side hopes with every fiber of my being that Obrador will take it. My realist, bitter, worldweary side sighs that of course Calderón is going to be installed.
Waiting.
Waiting.
# posted by 
: 8/28/2006 10:06:00 AM
: 8/28/2006 10:06:00 AM
So, what you mean to say is that Obrador is better equipped to react to the inevitable recession you are predicting. And he is capable of making order out of chaos.
Probability: Hahahahaha
Probability: Hahahahaha
Tourpro, do you have any idea what the Mexican economy has been like under PAN?
It has been terrible. GDP growth has barely kept up with population. Wages have been falling and poverty rising. It's in a classic demand-led economic decline.
Lopez Obrador may not know a lot of things. But he knows that people need to eat, live in homes, have hope for the future.
Sneer all you want: Truth is not mocked.
It has been terrible. GDP growth has barely kept up with population. Wages have been falling and poverty rising. It's in a classic demand-led economic decline.
Lopez Obrador may not know a lot of things. But he knows that people need to eat, live in homes, have hope for the future.
Sneer all you want: Truth is not mocked.
Well Charles, it appears your probabilities were about right. The expect decision came down. Annul some votes -- almost evenly -- and pronounce that everything has now been taken care of.
Indeed, it has.
Indeed, it has.
Thebhc, I guessed wrong. I thought the court would provide the minimum respect, gestures in favor of recognizing that there had been wrongs done, that would have been necessary to keep things from sliding downhill. For AMLO to keep his troops in line, he needed some clear commitment that there would never be this sort of fraud again. Instead, the ruling group laughed in his face,
People are talking in the press about civil war, not because anyone is eager for it, but because in the words of John F. Kennedy, "Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable."
People are talking in the press about civil war, not because anyone is eager for it, but because in the words of John F. Kennedy, "Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable."
Charles, you make me laugh. Lopez obrador created more poverty in Mexico under his 5 year rule than his predecessors in 10 years.
At least, Calderon didn´t flunk Economics in college like AMLO did (3 times in a row).
Economy in Mexico under PAN has been the best we had in 30 years. Do you know what it is to endure 300% devaluations every 6 years?
No, but we Mexicans did under PRI. This is finally over, thanks to Zedillo and Fox.
The middle-class is thriving and extreme poverty has been reduced. We have hope for the future, something we did not have under PRI (which, incidentally, is AMLO's former party).
It is a good thing the madman you admire so much didn´t win.
Oh, and most of his supporters
At least, Calderon didn´t flunk Economics in college like AMLO did (3 times in a row).
Economy in Mexico under PAN has been the best we had in 30 years. Do you know what it is to endure 300% devaluations every 6 years?
No, but we Mexicans did under PRI. This is finally over, thanks to Zedillo and Fox.
The middle-class is thriving and extreme poverty has been reduced. We have hope for the future, something we did not have under PRI (which, incidentally, is AMLO's former party).
It is a good thing the madman you admire so much didn´t win.
Oh, and most of his supporters
# posted by : 9/01/2006 10:27:00 AM
: 9/01/2006 10:27:00 AM
Wow! Lots of assertions by "Mexicano" (or is it "Tourpro"?), but of course nothing to back them up. You PANistas would be so cute if too many of you weren't violent paramilitary thugs, as Charles and others have shown time and again.
paramilitary what?
Well, it is not us who violently kidnapped Reforma and the Zocalo.
It is not us who took by foce the stands in congress.
If you want to see thugs, no need to look further than PRD.
As for Charles "proving" anything... all I have seen him do is regurgitate the same lies La Jornada and Proceso publish on a daily basis.
That's researchinig for you, apparently: copy-pasting articles from 2 biased newspaper.
You lot are laughable.
Well, it is not us who violently kidnapped Reforma and the Zocalo.
It is not us who took by foce the stands in congress.
If you want to see thugs, no need to look further than PRD.
As for Charles "proving" anything... all I have seen him do is regurgitate the same lies La Jornada and Proceso publish on a daily basis.
That's researchinig for you, apparently: copy-pasting articles from 2 biased newspaper.
You lot are laughable.
# posted by : 9/02/2006 12:23:00 AM
: 9/02/2006 12:23:00 AM
By the way, Phoenix Woman, if you don´t like paramilitary thugs, you should caution your very own Charles for his frequent calls for armed revolution in Mexico.
Of course, those calls should not be taken serioulsy because, for one, I doubt this blog has a reader base of more than 10 (that is including Charle's mother, in whose basement he probably still lives)and besides, he does come across as the type of sick perv who wets himself whenever civil war erupts somewhere in the World.
One can only imagine his glee should blood be spilled down here. I am sure reading about murdered and raped "PANistas" would give him the same kind of thrill he probably gets out of looking at pictures of innocent Israeli civilians murdered by Hamas's and Hizbolah's "Freedom Fighters".
I know your type. I met quite a few of your ilk while studying Social Studies at UCLA. You love to talk about Democracy and Freedom and you love to see others die for what you believe in.
You just don´t have the onions to do the fighting yourselves.
Whatever... Civil war will not erupt in Mexico.
We need a reform and it will happen peacefully and through negociation. Of course, that could only be done under a good President, not a vindictive power-hungry megalomaniac like AMLO so, once he is out of the way, Mexico will be ready to move on.
He may try to create civil unrest, of course, and he will fail.
Calderon will surprise many by how good a President he will be, mark my words.
In 3 years time, I will see you secretly erasing the entries where you supported AMLO and you will be ashamed you were ever associated to that madman.
Of course, those calls should not be taken serioulsy because, for one, I doubt this blog has a reader base of more than 10 (that is including Charle's mother, in whose basement he probably still lives)and besides, he does come across as the type of sick perv who wets himself whenever civil war erupts somewhere in the World.
One can only imagine his glee should blood be spilled down here. I am sure reading about murdered and raped "PANistas" would give him the same kind of thrill he probably gets out of looking at pictures of innocent Israeli civilians murdered by Hamas's and Hizbolah's "Freedom Fighters".
I know your type. I met quite a few of your ilk while studying Social Studies at UCLA. You love to talk about Democracy and Freedom and you love to see others die for what you believe in.
You just don´t have the onions to do the fighting yourselves.
Whatever... Civil war will not erupt in Mexico.
We need a reform and it will happen peacefully and through negociation. Of course, that could only be done under a good President, not a vindictive power-hungry megalomaniac like AMLO so, once he is out of the way, Mexico will be ready to move on.
He may try to create civil unrest, of course, and he will fail.
Calderon will surprise many by how good a President he will be, mark my words.
In 3 years time, I will see you secretly erasing the entries where you supported AMLO and you will be ashamed you were ever associated to that madman.
# posted by : 9/02/2006 02:24:00 AM
: 9/02/2006 02:24:00 AM
So amusing, "Mexicano", to see fascisti like you assume that non-fascisti would use the same methods that your side favors: Namely, violence, lies, and selective editing of the historical record.
But if I can keep you and your sock puppet The Blank One busy here, wasting your time on long-winded, bizarre comments, that's less time that you have to make pipe bombs. So do carry on!
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But if I can keep you and your sock puppet The Blank One busy here, wasting your time on long-winded, bizarre comments, that's less time that you have to make pipe bombs. So do carry on!
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