Monday, September 04, 2006


Evidence of fraud

Image from Weisbrot, Sandoval and Paredes-Drouet, An Analysis of Discrepancies in the Mexican Presidential Election Results. Random processes follow a Bell Curve. The ballot count, even by the Election Institute's own numbers doesn't. Only a bit more than half the precincts could make the ballots issued match the votes plus surplus ballots. Over 86,000 ballots are missing. Even if one counts only the precincts where three or more ballots are missing, that is 62,811 ballots. Over 56,000 ballots have mysteriously appeared, of which 41,000 represent errors of 3 or more ballots per precinct. This represents an error rate of 0.3% on an election decided by not much more than that. Washington State says its recounts show a variation of only 1 vote in 10,000. And this is without going into the issues of open ballot packets, etc. The evidence of fraud? That the Elections Court has refused to make public all the data and the media have gone along. The non-Gaussian distribution of errors, well...that too, of which perhaps more later.
It was stolen. Given that they crown Calderón. It's not quite over yet. But any sane examination of the facts turns up far too many glaring indicators of fraud to come to any other conclusion.

Michael Collins guest blogging at BradBlog rips shit up with a slew of facts that bring us to that conclusion rather comfortably.
Funny you should mention Collins, Nezua. I just e-mailed him because I ran across his work elsewhere. So I am doubly glad for the link you provided.
Yeah, I love running across people who have really been on top of an issue that is important to me. The best is when someone tries to refute them with some tired party line or something (Mexico's Right party line, in this instance), and then you are surprised by the person (Mr. Collins, in this example) who just busts open their bag and whips out like fifteen hundred well-researched facts and lays down a solid case that cannot be argued by someone hashing out pablum. I could practically hear the stadium standing up in the comments section, as Collins refuted some tripe someone was offering as a counter to his post. Good stuff.

And I'm happy I could offer something valuable to you.
I had a hard time righting this up knowing that they are crowning Calderón. It is the same way I felt after Kerry was elected, just lost. We all saw the exit polls for Kerry, and bam, Bush takes away. We see the fraud and more evidence continue to come out everyday and once again, bam, Calderón.

But not writing it only hands Calderón a victory, so I did. I really do not know where this will all lead too now if AMLO does go through with the creation of the parallel government. They are already talking about drafting up a new constitution.
XP, another fella who knows how to lay down a track of facts that can sweep you to your station with heavy tools in your rucksack.

And even remembering that night, when all the tallies started changing mysteriously (Kerry v Bush) makes my gut begin to smoke. I was text messaging my girl the totals, she was at work on the nightshift, and at one point I was like I'm going to bed now, and when I woke up the next day, I was inside of a nightmare.
There are many things we cannot do.

But we can endure, can refuse to forget, can refuse get turned around, can remember the people who are so much less powerless than we, and can try to give them voice.

Some guy over at Bradblog is trying to say that AMLO shouldn't protest because the Mexican government might kill people and the US might invade.

Now, if you can't protest because you fear you might get killed by your own government or the country next door, what kind of freedom is that?

I reminded him that people were telling Martin Luther King something similar when he was in Birmingham jail.
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