Saturday, November 04, 2006
1999 War Games Showed Iraq Was Unwinnable Even With Three Times As Many Troops
A lot of the neocons currently distancing themselves from Bush and Iraq are trying to claim that "invading would have worked if we'd had enough troops." Well, back in 1999, the US government tried wargaming an invasion of Iraq -- and discovered that even with 400,000 troops, three times the number of troops there now, it would have turned into a bloody quagmire similar to the one that exists now:
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003: _"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability." _"Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic _ especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments." _"Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad." _"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development." _"Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government." _"A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."Reminds me of the infamous 2002 Millenium Challenge, where the invasion of Iraq was staged -- and the guy playing Saddam's lead general actually won. The Bushies didn't pay attention to that result, either. Why haven't we heard about the 1999 war games until now? Because Bush and his people did their best, short of burning the records, to hide it. It took a very forceful Freedom of Information Act request to bring this to light.
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