Wednesday, December 13, 2006


How bad will it be, part 1

The Treasury sponsored a panel on mortgages and how house booms can unwind. Panel on Mortgages Panel 1: Outlook for the U.S. Housing Market and Potential Impact on Banks and Thrifts Scott M. Polakoff, Deputy Director Office of Thrift Supervision; Richard A. Brown, Chief Economist Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; William A. Longbrake, Formerly FDIC, now WaMu vice chair Anthony T. Cluff, Senior Policy Advisor Financial Services Roundtable; Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist Decision Economics, Inc.; David F. Seiders, Chief Economist National Association of Home Builders Regulatory speakers: Risk is well-distributed, but things can get much worse Sinai: 8-10% decline in median home price, 2.5% GDP growth at best (housing will contribute -1%), may be cushioned by concentration of speculative financing among upper income, but subprime mortgages could be a problem Seiders: (Homebuilders Association): Home sales bottom out in 4Q 2006. Housing bottoms out in 4Q, 2007
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