Sunday, April 02, 2006
Britain Escalates War Threats Against Iran
Best estimates say that Iran is 5-10 years away from having a nuclear weapon. If it has one, and chooses to launch it, it could expect massive retaliation from over a hundred Israeli weapons and several thousand American weapons.
The Torygraph is reporting that, according to a senior Foreign Office source:
There will be no invasion of Iran but the nuclear sites will be destroyed. This is not something that will happen imminently, maybe this year, maybe next year. Jack Straw is making exactly the same noises that the Government did in March 2003 when it spoke about the likelihood of a war in Iraq. "Then the Government said the war was neither inevitable or imminent and then attacked." ...
Military chiefs also plan tomorrow to discuss fears that an attack within Iran will "unhinge" southern Iraq - where British troops are based - an area mainly populated by Shia Muslims who have strong political and religious links to Iran.
The basic plan of attack is stated to be:
Tactical Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from US navy ships and submarines in the Gulf would...target Iran's air defence systems ... That would enable attacks by B2 stealth bombers equipped with eight 4,500lb enhanced BLU-28 satellite-guided bunker-busting bombs, flying from Diego Garcia, the isolated US Navy base in the Indian Ocean, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Whiteman USAF base in Missouri.
This is all b... b... brinksmanship, warning Iraq of what the US will do. Here's what would also happen:
1. Significant civilian casualties, release of radiation, resurgence of memories of Hiroshima.
2. Revulsion in the Islamic world against the US. leading to removal of all internal restraints against terrorism.
3. Likely shutdown of the Gulf, leading to a doubling in the price of oil.
4. Increased incentives for Iran and Syria to stir mischief in Iraq.
5. Increased incentives for states like Pakistan and North Korea to export nuclear technology.
6. Increased incentives for states like Russia and China to turn a blind eye to such export.
Surely there's an upside here somewhere. Maybe
7. Democratic "leaders" accepting further repression of Americans.
It's not my upside, but I am sure it is someone's.
And coming on the heels of the British acknowledgement that its role in Iraq has made it a target of terrorism, it seems exceptionally stupid for Britain to allow itself to be used to issue Washington's threats.
Comments:
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I expect that the reason we're finding out about all of this is that somebody (or more likely, several somebodies) in Blair's government wants to derail this plan before it gets off the ground.
I note that this is happening just as Anthony Zinni is now making the rounds of the talk shows telling everyone who will listen that Rumsfeld needs to resign and that we need to get the hell out of Iraq ASAP. I suspect that dissident members of the Defense and Defence Departments of the US and UK are working the back-channel route to try and wrest control away from Rumsfeld and the PNAC Platoon.
I note that this is happening just as Anthony Zinni is now making the rounds of the talk shows telling everyone who will listen that Rumsfeld needs to resign and that we need to get the hell out of Iraq ASAP. I suspect that dissident members of the Defense and Defence Departments of the US and UK are working the back-channel route to try and wrest control away from Rumsfeld and the PNAC Platoon.
With leaks, one never quite knows what the agenda is, PW. But because it appeared in The Telegraph, one would not immediately guess that it is coming from Blair's government.
My interpretation is that this is standard saber rattling, ordered by Washington to prepare people for war.
My interpretation is that this is standard saber rattling, ordered by Washington to prepare people for war.
1. Significant civilian casualties, release of radiation, resurgence of memories of Hiroshima.
2. Revulsion in the Islamic world against the US. leading to removal of all internal restraints against terrorism.
3. Likely shutdown of the Gulf, leading to a doubling in the price of oil.
4. Increased incentives for Iran and Syria to stir mischief in Iraq.
5. Increased incentives for states like Pakistan and North Korea to export nuclear technology.
6. Increased incentives for states like Russia and China to turn a blind eye to such export.
7. Democratic "leaders" accepting further repression of Americans.
Oops. I thought this was the scenario if we have it your way and let Iran build and launch nukes.
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2. Revulsion in the Islamic world against the US. leading to removal of all internal restraints against terrorism.
3. Likely shutdown of the Gulf, leading to a doubling in the price of oil.
4. Increased incentives for Iran and Syria to stir mischief in Iraq.
5. Increased incentives for states like Pakistan and North Korea to export nuclear technology.
6. Increased incentives for states like Russia and China to turn a blind eye to such export.
7. Democratic "leaders" accepting further repression of Americans.
Oops. I thought this was the scenario if we have it your way and let Iran build and launch nukes.
# posted by 
: 4/06/2006 01:47:00 PM
: 4/06/2006 01:47:00 PM << Home
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