Mercury Rising

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Wow. Foul-mouthed troll comment #2 of the day is now zapped.

The Calderon fans all seem to think that maledicta beats logic and fact. They spend their time dropping F-bombs instead of even attempting to make a decent case for their guy. That alone would be a big hint to me that Charles is right and they are wrong.
 

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I'd like to recommend you that everytime that's possible to CHECK your facts before making absurd assumptions about what has been happening in Oaxaca, and if you want your comments to be taken seriously take your info from other sources besides "La Jornada"... as for Brad Will, it's sad what happened to him but in a way that's what will happen everytime you try and hide (or in this case he) behind this armed extremists, because 100 people (APPO's) armed with guns and explosives really is a threat.

Did you knew that before this all ended in the death of Brad Will that APPO's people were searching house by house (Brad was with them 'documenting' everything but the funny thing is he wasn't seen with the camera turned on then), and in more than one case those APPO's kicked peaceful residents because "they looked like PRIist's".

What i would recommend you and everyone in this blog is that before you come and criticize MY country you try and fix your's first, get rid of all the racism in the government and all the people being murdered everyday just to keep on having "an american way of life".

Mike
 

Manuel: I stand corrected. Manexpat's first comment (which I presume Charles zapped) was merely insulting and fact-free, not blatantly obscene. The comment that I zapped was from an anonymous commenter who, unlike Manexpat, actually lives in Mexico City, and ran something like this (I've supplied asterisks):

F**k you man, are you crazy?

PINCHE GRINGO PENDEJO

--
Posted by Anonymous to Mercury Rising at 10/29/2006 07:45:46 PM

Not exactly the sign of someone willing to engage in reasoned and factual debate, is it?
 

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Phoenix Woman, the poster in question agreed to cease to post on this site after repeated warnings. I intend to help him keep his word.

As for anyone else who wants to post on Mercury Rising, I want to recommend that they read the rules of the site. We do, in fact, encourage vigorous debate, but we do not encourage abusive debate.

For the posters who haven't yet been banned, here are a few points:
1. Attacking the source is not political debate.
2. Recent developments include the arrest of five suspects in the Will murder. They include government workers, policemen, and a judge.
3. The murderers of Will were not acting lawfully. They were acting as vigilantes.
4. There have been people other than demonstrators who have been killed. Because there has been a breakdown in order, crime has exploded.
5. At least according to a look at El Universal archives, no suspects have been identified in the murder of Rene Calvo Aragon. If members of APPO were involved, they should of course be prosecuted. However, dozens of members of APPO have been murdered, kidnapped, and tortured. To pass over their deaths is hypocrisy.
6. Mercury Rising has followed this story for quite a while. If there are errors in our news aggregation, they will be noted.
 

Thanks, Charles. I'd forgotten that about "Manexpat", who judging from his IP addresses has about as much to do with Mexico recently as Ahmad Chalabi had to do with Iraq from 1956 to 2003. But it doesn't surprise me that he would break his promise. He hasn't exactly been trustworthy about much else that I could see.
 

Manuel, as I have pointed out repeatedly, the Fox government has tolerated Ulises Ruiz Ortiz's corruption, which is epic even by Mexican standards.

It tolerated URO's violent repression of the demonstrators in June that brought on this crisis.

It tolerated operation of paramilitary death squads of the kind that shot Brad Will to death.

It is entirely logical to conclude that Fox's government is in collusion with Governor Ortiz.

Now, as far as interpretive skill, I would point out that you were wrong about identifying Will's murderers. I would also point out that if you are basing your moral judgments on Batman and Spiderman, you are not anchored in reality. My point is simply this: I have a lot of experience in interpreting data and a pretty good track record of predicting results. One of the reasons I am as good as I am is because I have no problem in admitting when I am wrong, nor do I refuse to learn from anyone.

But I deal in facts and logic, not in emotion.
 

Hi.

I'm terrible sorry for the murder of that journalist. Is really sad that this kind of things happen. Is really sad that a lot of innocent people dies for nothing. But also, is really sad that a person talk about something who only read on papers.

The troubles in Oaxaca are full of shit. By "full shit", i mean that is like a... piece of shit, covered with your favorite ice cream flavor. The real problem was Ulises Ruiz, but at this time, the real problem are those people who wants their piece of pie ($$$). Ulises Ruiz was only the trigger for this. I'm agree with those who think that Ruiz need to quit, but i'm also agree with the action that the goverment take with the "APPOs". Their going too far, and everybody here knows that, They aren't the students of Tlatelolco in the 68. They don't have guns. They don't take the city. They don't threatened to the parents who send their child to the school. why you don't say that?

The goverment is crap, but APPOs don't smell like flowers.

Sorry my English, sucks a lot, i know.
 

Manuel, paramilitaries are any non legally-constituted armed group operating as if they were a military group, i.e., firing on anyone perceived to be on the other side. I haven't come across one death that could be ascribed to neighborhood defense.

These particular paramilitary groups seem to have been organized either directly by Ruiz Ortiz or by local caciques. The guys who killed Will seem to have bee local talent. But some of the kidnappings, tortures, and murders used techniques reminiscent of those the US made famous in Vietnam and Central America. I think you're kidding yourself if you think the murderers, tortures, and kidnappings were the spontaneous actions of locals.

Had the federal government been acting to defuse the crisis, the proper time to respond was in June 14th, when Ulises Ruiz Ortiz used helicopters and tear gas against the strikers. They had plenty of reason to go in, from corruption to dealing with the handling of the strike as a constitutional issue.

And, no, there was no reason to be polite. Governor Ortiz is a criminal, and was well known to be one. That's the reason hundreds of thousands of people joined the protestors. Ruiz Ortiz's adherents and the police and other government employees who carry out orders they know to be illegal are also criminals. You talk about the duty of the legislature-- this was the duty of the Attorney General. If the federal government had intervened when it should have, back in June, they would have gotten the cooperation of the protestors.

Law only exists as long as all sides are upholding it. It's wonderful to be a libertarian. I regard myself as one. But to be a real libertarian means to be an advocate for the weak, so that they are never placed in the position where the law is merely a tool by which the powerful abuse the powerless.
 

Manuel, it comes down to this: governments and the laws they promulgate, exist only to the extent that they benefit the members of society. When they cease to serve the society, then-- as the American Founding Fathers said-- the people have an inalienable right to put an end to those governments. I think that the Mexican elites are very close to pushing themselves over that cliff. Perhaps the American elites as well, though we have at least jailed one governor and two congressional representatives in just the last few years.

It is certainly not my desire that Mexico should enter a state of general civil unrest. Every crisis in Mexico spills over into the United States and harms us. It is, however, my conclusion that the elites of Mexico have so completely forgotten their role of leading society, of upholding law by behaving with genuine respect for the law, that breakdown is becoming inevitable. It won't be right if people turn to violence. But when there is no justice, it is eminently foreseeable.

You point out correctly that there are separations of power between state and federal governments. But Governor Ortiz is so incredibly corrupt that the Mexican legislature just symbolically voted for the fuero-- and everyone has known this ever since the computers went down in his last election. The Attorney General could have exposed that corruption to the public and made things so hot for Ortiz that he'd pack his bags himself. But the Attorney General is also an ineffectual leader.

The Founders of the United States did not believe that any leader would be an angel. They rather assumed that all leaders were potentially devils. They saw politics as a dynamic system in which one interest group would keep another in check. Whether APPO's leaders are, for the purposes of this discussion, good people or not is irrelevant. They represent popular anger against economic stagnation, cronyism, and a loss of hope in the future. The people who were on the barricades in Oaxaca voted for them with their bodies.

It's sad that so many people's livelihoods have suffered. I have, in fact, pointed this out in other posts. But this is why every person has a stake in making sure that everyone feels part of the system, that everyone has a chance to prosper. When people feel shut out, they can only make their feelings known through violence.

It was John Kennedy who said that "Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable." The present generation is not as wise as his.
 

While I make it a rule not to discuss my personal situation, Manuel, I think this might be a little closer than the stratosphere. Also, paradoxically sometimes one finds that the ones closest to an event are the last ones to ask what happened.

The key questions that have to be answered in order to understand events are:
1. How is it possible that a group of protestors held off the power of the state?
2. Why is it that so many people from so many walks of life joined the strike and continue to resist the PFP presence?
3. What forces in Mexican political life that normally don't work together joined forces in the strike?
A good analyst, whether on the front lines or at 10,000 feet, draws data from any source, remains skeptical of all sources, and pieces together the puzzle by seeing which pieces are corroborated by genuinely independent sources and fit together with others. So far, alternate explanations that I have heard do not make a coherent picture.

As for the US, Mexico's problems represent far more than just immigration, from which the US (or at least certain people in the US) actually benefits.

The downside of Mexico's problems, partly due to a failure of American leadership in developing a sensible response, includes narcotrafficking and the export of violence, cross-border pollution, downward pressure on manufacturing wages and a consequent fraying of the social fabric, diminished economic opportunity for US businesses, pressures for the US to militarize society, increased risks of an oil shock... the list is very long. As I have noted elsewhere, Mexico is the US's second largest national trade partner (after the EU region and Canada) and therefore whatever happens in Mexico is of serious concern to every American. Sadly, many Americans don't know that.

I'm interested by the assertions you make, especially about the teachers's pay but also about Sosa and Rueda, and would appreciate links.

The way people view events has much to do with interpretation of events for which the full facts are not known. One example is the 14 deaths you ascribe to APPO vs. the three involved in the PFP incursion. Ruiz Ortiz lost power roughly four months ago. The PFP has been present for a few days. If one anticipates that the three deaths are all that will occur for the next months, then it's an improvement. But if what ensues is a campaign of assassination similar to what happened after the 1988 election, then maybe not.

Similarly, there's a question about who caused the deaths following the strike. Of the deaths you list, most were almost certainly done by adherents of Ruiz Ortiz. So, getting rid of Ortiz will improve the situation; getting rid of APPO, not so much.

I think there is much yet to unfold. I doubt that peace will return to Oaxaca for many years to come. Rather, I suspect that the failure to deal equitably with the conflict in Oaxaca will in future be marked as a turning point for the end of the fourth Mexican Republic.

But we shall see. You and I are but drops in a raging sea of history.
 

Thanks for the e-mail, Manuel.

You raise some interesting issues. I think I'll start a new thread in the next couple of days and include the topics you raised.
 

I do appreciate the material you have e-mailed, Manuel, and will look forward to more.

Your explanation for why the APPO was able to hold off the government simply doesn't follow, though I will grant you that Fox is an empty suit.

First, to the extent that Mexico has a reluctance to get involved in violent repression, it is fortunate. Violent repression simply does not work. We see where it leads to in Iraq.

In fact, Governor Ortiz tried violent repression and-- just as in Iraq-- it served only to coalesce community support for his opposition.

Second, the presidential election has been over for months.

I think you underestimate the breadth and depth of the movement that APPO brought together or the reasons why sprinkling a little money on the problem is not going to make it go away.

But, as I say, these things will only become evident with time. Oaxaca is an acute crisis, but Mexico has a chronic, fulminant illness, for which Oaxaca is just a symptom.
 

An interview suggesting that what may be at stake in Oaxaca is a theft from the poor of roughly 1 billion dollars
 

That's an interesting theory about Brad Will. However, there was a physician who did an autopsy, removing two bullets from the body. Why not ask him? Presumably the government has.

As for blood and wounds, it depends on what the bullet hits, how close the shot is, and what kind of ammunition was involved. Granted, one expects to see massive wounds from short-range rifle wounds, but commercial hunting ammunition actually causes more visible damage than military-issue ammuniion.

There's quite a lot of information available about Brad Will; I don't think it's a secret. He was a naive, idealistic guy, an activist in the sense of being politically aware and engaged. But he wasn't running guns or drugs or, as far as I can tell, breaking the law in any manner recognized by the international community. I have to laugh at the thought that one man could be the cause of 4,000 militarized police landing with helicopters and automatic weapons.

I actually have been answering other aspects of your post in a more recent post to the main page, Manuel, since this post has already scrolled into archives. See here for a discussion of striker pay and a comment about FSV.